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Cox Automotive’s Forecast: 2024 – A Return to Normalcy in the U.S. Auto Market

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auto market, the word that will likely sum up 2024 is “normalcy,” according to Cox Automotive’s Forecast: 2024. auto industry. “To name a few, we saw historic appreciation in vehicle values, unimagined drops in supply, and interest rates moving from all-time lows to 23-year highs at an unforgiving pace.

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High Interest Rates, Slow Economy Repress U.S. Auto Dealer Sentiment

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auto market, according to the Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI). The Q3 current market index was 45, still below the threshold of 50, indicating that more dealers see the current auto market as weak than see the market as strong. Overall dealer sentiment in the U.S.

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Dealers’ Optimism on Rise, says Cox Q4 2024 Dealer Sentiment Index

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The latest survey, conducted immediately following the national election in early November, indicates that, while current market conditions are still viewed as weak, dealers are increasingly optimistic about the future. This significant increase suggests that more dealers believe the auto market will be stronger in the next three months.

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U.S. Auto Dealer Sentiment Improves in Q1, Market View Remains Weak

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For franchised dealers, the profitability index has declined significantly from the first half of 2022, when the index was near a record high and above 80. Beginning in the second half of 2022, the index has dropped significantly and, in Q1 2024, hit 41 – the lowest point in the survey’s history excluding Q2 2020.

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Cox survey finds dealer sentiment stable – at a pessimistic level

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The index for the second quarter of 2024 was virtually unchanged from the previous quarter and has varied little since falling below 50 in late 2022 — but that level indicates a prevailing perception of a weak market. Of course, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Independent dealers’ score fell from 42 to 40.

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Cox’s Q1 survey shows hint of optimism, but dealers still down on current market

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auto market is very different than it was just two years ago.” Sales environment still down Dealers said the current sales environments for both new and used vehicles have improved over last quarter but are still down year over year. “Dealer costs continue to grow and profitability per sale has dropped.

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U.S. Automobile Dealer Sentiment: Dealers Remain Pessimistic, Cautious

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The Q2 current market index score of 42 indicates most U.S. auto dealers see the market as weak. The last time current market sentiment was above 50 — suggesting the market was strong, not weak — was Q2 2022. The cost index in Q2 is at a record high, matching the peak in Q2 2022.